✓ verbatim from the press ? no verbatim passage
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) would defeat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) by 49% to 43% in a hypothetical second-round runoff for the 2026 presidential election, according to a BTG/Nexus poll released this Monday, June 15. The six-percentage-point margin is double the two-point margin of error, representing a statistically significant lead. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) venceria o senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) em uma eventual disputa de segundo turno, caso a eleição presidencial fosse realizada hoje, segundo pesquisa Nexus divulgada nesta segunda-feira, 15. No cenário testado, Lula aparece com 49% das intenções de voto, contra 43% do filho do ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro."
"No segundo turno, Lula amplia a vitória em dois pontos sobre Flávio Bolsonaro: de 47% a 43% em maio, foi para 49% a 43% na pesquisa atual."
In the previous poll released in May, Lula had 47% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 43%, a four-point difference within the margin of error. The two-percentage-point variation for the PT candidate is at the limit of what the methodology can detect as signal. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Na comparação com o levantamento anterior, divulgado em maio, o petista ganhou 2 pontos percentuais de vantagem. À época, Lula tinha 47% e Flávio Bolsonaro os mesmos 43%, configurando empate técnico dentro da margem de erro de 2 pontos percentuais."
In the first round, Lula has 42% of vote intentions in the main scenario, against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro — a nine-point difference. Renan Santos (Missão) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) have 4% each; Romeu Zema (Novo), Joaquim Barbosa (DC), and Augusto Cury (Avante) score 2%; Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza) have 1%. Blank and null votes total 5%, and undecided voters 3%. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"No principal cenária, Lula cresceu de 40% para 42% desde a última pesquisa, divulgada em 25 de maio, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro caiu de 35% para 33%. Renan Santos (Missão) e Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) aparecem na sequência com 4% cada um. Romeu Zema (Novo), Joaquim Barbosa (DC) e Augusto Cury (Avante) marcam 2%. Aécio Neves (PSDB) e Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza) completam o quadro com 1%. Brancos e nulos são 5% e indecisos 3%."
The poll surveyed 2,017 voters by telephone (CATI system) between June 12 and 14, 2026, across all 27 federal units. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-06645/2026, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points either way and a 95% confidence level. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"O levantamento ouviu 2.017 entrevistados por telefone, entre 12 e 14 de junho, nas 27 unidades da Federação. A margem de erro é de 2 pontos percentuais, para mais ou para menos, com nível de confiança de 95%. A pesquisa foi registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob o número BR-06645/2026."
Compared to the previous cycle, Jair Bolsonaro registered 48% of valid vote intentions against Lula's 52% on the eve of the 2022 second round, according to a Datafolha poll from October 29 — a four-point difference within the ±2pp margin of error. Flávio Bolsonaro's current result (43%) is five points below his father's performance in the final stretch of 2022. ?
Press quotes (1)
"LULA (PT) TEM 52% DAS INTENÇÕES DE VOTOS VÁLIDOS NA VÉSPERA DA ELEIÇÃO, CONTRA 48% DE JAIR BOLSONARO (PL). Na véspera da votação que decidirá quem será o presidente brasileiro a partir de janeiro de 2023, Lula (PT) tem 52% das intenções de voto, e Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 48%. A margem de erro é de dois pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos."
Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in second-round runoff by 49% to 43%, according to BTG/Nexus poll of June 15
Poll was registered with TSE under number BR-06645/2026, with 2pp margin of error and 95% confidence
Lula also defeats Romeu Zema (49% to 39%), Ronaldo Caiado (48% to 39%), and Renan Santos (49% to 36%) in second-round simulations
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (3)
Flávio Bolsonaro fell from 35% to 33% in first-round (main scenario) between May and June
Flávio Bolsonaro's decline is linked to 'Banco Master scandal and ties to businessman Daniel Vorcaro'
In alternative narrower scenario, Lula has 43% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 34% in first round
Conflicting versions (1)
First-round numbers in main scenario (May)
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What is the 'Vorcaro scandal' cited by Revista Fórum as the cause of Flávio Bolsonaro's decline, and when did it emerge?
Why it's still unknown: Revista Fórum attributes Flávio Bolsonaro's decline to the 'Banco Master scandal and ties to businessman Daniel Vorcaro', but no other source in the cluster details the chronology or nature of the allegation. There is no FactCard establishing when the scandal became public, making it difficult to validate the causal relationship between disclosure and poll movement.
Did not cover: Jornal do Brasil -
Is the two-percentage-point difference between May and June for Lula in the second round statistically significant, or within the expected variation of the margin of error?
Why it's still unknown: The margin of error is 2 points either way in both surveys. The observed variation (47% → 49% for Lula) is at the margin's limit; without the complete confidence interval or formal significance test, it is not possible to state whether the movement represents a real trend or sampling oscillation.
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What is the demographic composition of the sample (gender, age, education, income) and are there regional differences in candidate performance?
Why it's still unknown: Sources report only aggregated national numbers. Demographic and geographic breakdowns were not published by the consulted sources.
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What is the dialing method (RDD, registry list, panel) and response rate of the CATI system used?
Why it's still unknown: Sources report that collection was 'by telephone' via CATI, but do not detail whether the base is random numbers, registry, or digital panel, nor the response rate — data necessary to assess non-response bias.