✓ verbatim from the press ≈ paraphrased ? no verbatim passage
A BTG/Nexus poll released on May 25, 2026 shows Lula with 47% of voting intentions against 43% for Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential presidential runoff. The four-point difference exceeds the two-point margin of error, though Terra.com.br reports the candidates are technically tied within the margin of error. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"De acordo com a margem de erro da pesquisa, que é de dois pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos, os dois estão empatados tecnicamente."
The institute interviewed 2,045 voters by phone between May 22-24, registered with TSE under protocol BR-04193/2026. Compared to the previous April poll, Lula gained one point while Flávio dropped two points, expanding the PT candidate's lead from one to four percentage points. ≈
Press quotes (1)
"O levantamento foi realizado por telefone entre os dias 22 e 24 de maio. Foram entrevistados 2.045 eleitores. A margem de erro é de dois pontos percentuais, com intervalo de confiança de 95%. A pesquisa está registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob o protocolo BR-04193/2026."
The survey reveals stark demographic divisions: Lula leads among women (54% to 35%), voters aged 60+ (51% to 41%), and in the Northeast (59% to 32%). Flávio Bolsonaro has advantages among men (52% to 40%), young voters aged 16-24 (48% to 44%), and in the South (53% to 39%). In the Southeast, candidates are numerically tied at 45% each. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"No recorte por perfil, Lula tem desempenho mais forte entre mulheres (54% a 35%), eleitores com 60 anos ou mais (51% a 41%), católicos (51% a 42%), entrevistados com Ensino Fundamental (56% a 37%), além dos que têm renda familiar de até um salário mínimo (55% a 32%) e dos desocupados (59% a 28%). Regionalmente, seu principal reduto segue sendo o Nordeste, onde marca 59%, contra 32% de Flávio. O senador do PL, por sua vez, lidera entre homens (52% a 40%), evangélicos (54% a 36%), jovens de 16 a 24 anos (48% a 44%), eleitores com Ensino Médio (47% a 41%) e nas faixas de renda mais altas, com vantagem de 51% a 44% entre aqueles com renda superior a cinco salários mínimos. Flávio também abre vantagem no Sul (53% a 39%) e no Norte/Centro-Oeste (50% a 43%), enquanto há empate numérico no Sudeste (45% a 45%)."
BTG/Nexus poll was conducted May 22-24, 2026 with 2,045 respondents, 2-point margin of error
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (1)
Poll was conducted after release of audio recordings of Flávio Bolsonaro requesting money from banker Daniel Vorcaro
Conflicting versions (1)
Technical tie interpretation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
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What is Flávio Bolsonaro's official candidacy registration status with TSE for 2026?
Why it's still unknown: Attempt to access TSE Candidaturas 2026 database failed: RETRIEVAL_REQUIRED
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What are the complete methodological details of the BTG/Nexus poll, including weighting scheme and non-response rate?
Why it's still unknown: Public documentation does not reveal methodology details beyond basics reported by press
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Are there pending legal actions at TSE or STF challenging Flávio Bolsonaro's eligibility for 2026?
Why it's still unknown: Verification of mandado de segurança status or legal challenges to eligibility requires direct access to TSE/STF systems