✓ verbatim from the press ≈ paraphrased ? no verbatim passage
Lula would defeat Flávio Bolsonaro by 49.3% to 36.8% in a hypothetical runoff for the 2026 presidential election—a 12.5-percentage-point advantage—according to the 168th CNT Opinion Poll released this Tuesday, June 16. The survey, conducted by Instituto MDA between June 10 and 14 with 2,002 voters, has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points and is registered with the TSE under number BR-04256/2026. Blank and null votes total 11.2%, and undecided voters are 2.7%. ≈
Press quotes (2)
"No cenário estimulado para uma eventual disputa presidencial entre os dois, o presidente aparece com 49,3% das intenções de voto, contra 36,8% do senador."
"Entrevistados: 2.002 eleitores / Período: dias 10 a 14 de junho de 2026 / Margem de erro: 2.2 pontos percentuais / Nível de confiança da margem de erro: 95% / Forma de coleta: presencial, domiciliar e ponto de fluxo / Contratante: Confederação Nacional do Transporte (CNT) / Registro: BR-04256/2026"
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator from Rio de Janeiro, affiliated with the Liberal Party (PL), elected in 2018, and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The poll simulates a hypothetical runoff: the senator is not yet an official presidential candidate—the 2026 general elections will have a first round on October 4 and a potential runoff on October 25, according to TSE Resolution No. 23,760. Brazilian electoral law requires a runoff only if no candidate obtains an absolute majority (over 50%) of valid votes in the first round. ?
Press quotes (2)
"Flávio Nantes Bolsonaro (Resende, 30 de abril de 1981) é um empresário, advogado e político brasileiro, filiado ao Partido Liberal (PL) e atual senador da República pelo Rio de Janeiro. É o filho mais velho do ex-presidente do Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro. Iniciou sua trajetória política como deputado estadual do Rio de Janeiro, ocupando o cargo de 2003 a 2019, quando assumiu o mandato de senador pelo mesmo estado, após ser eleito em 2018."
"As Eleições de 2026 estão marcadas para o dia 4 de outubro, quando eleitoras e eleitores vão às urnas para eleger ocupantes dos cargos de presidente da República, governadores, senadores e deputados federais, estaduais e distritais, no caso do Distrito Federal. O 2º turno do pleito está marcado para o dia 25 de outubro."
In the stimulated first-round scenario, Lula leads with 41.8% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 28.2%—a 13.6-point advantage. The other candidates tested poll between 1.8% and 4%; blank and null votes are 7%, and undecided 7.9%. The poll shows Lula has widened his lead since April 2026, when he had 39.2% in the first round and 45% in the runoff simulation against Flávio, who then had 40%. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"Lula aparece com 41,8%, seguido de Flávio Bolsonaro com 28,2%."
"Em abril, Lula tinha 45% em eventual disputa direta contra o senador filho de Jair Bolsonaro. Agora, tem 49%"
Instituto MDA was classified by O POVO's Data Center among the six institutes with the highest historical accuracy in the three most recent presidential elections (2014, 2018, and 2022), alongside AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Ideia, Quaest, and RealTime Big Data. The analysis compared electoral results with each institute's valid-vote projections. The CNT/MDA poll collection was conducted in-person, at homes and at flow points, contracted by the National Transportation Confederation. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Poderão ser publicadas matérias sobre pesquisas realizadas pelos institutos com histórico de maior precisão nas três eleições presidenciais mais recentes. São eles: AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Ideia, MDA, Quaest e RealTime Big Data. A lista foi definida a partir de levantamento, realizado pela Central de Dados do O POVO, que comparou o resultado eleitoral com o percentual de intenções de votos válidos projetado para cada candidato"
All consulted outlets agree that the CNT/MDA poll was conducted between June 10 and 14, 2026, with 2,002 respondents, a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, and TSE registration BR-04256/2026.
Lula defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in all runoff simulations presented by the CNT/MDA poll, with margins between 12.5 and 24.6 percentage points depending on the opponent tested.
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (3)
O POVO and TVT News highlighted that the poll shows Lula's lead over Flávio Bolsonaro widening compared to the April 2026 survey, while Brasil 247 did not mention the temporal comparison.
TVT News published a statement from Instituto MDA director Marcelo Souza contextualizing the poll results and evaluating the public-opinion environment; other outlets did not reproduce the statement.
O POVO presented detailed demographic and geographic breakdowns of the runoff simulation (Northeast, Southeast, South, income, education, religion), information that other outlets did not publish.
-
What is the geographic breakdown of votes between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff simulations?
Why it's still unknown: The CNT/MDA poll presented overall voting-intention numbers, but the press did not disclose detailed breakdowns by region, state, or municipality for the runoff simulation between the two candidates.
-
Does Flávio Bolsonaro already have a presidential candidacy officially registered or in the process of being registered with the TSE?
Why it's still unknown: Consulted sources treat Flávio Bolsonaro as a candidate in hypothetical poll scenarios, but do not report whether there is a formal presidential candidacy registration underway at the TSE. The deadline for registering candidacies in the 2026 elections has not yet been publicly announced.
-
What is Instituto MDA's performance history in subnational elections (state and municipal)?
Why it's still unknown: O POVO's independent validation covers only presidential elections (2014, 2018, 2022). There is no available information on the institute's accuracy in state or municipal races, which have distinct electoral dynamics.