✓ verbatim from the press ? no verbatim passage
Minas Gerais registered the highest increase in estimated homicides in Brazil in 2024, up 25.2% from the previous year, according to the Atlas of Violence 2026 released by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) and the Brazilian Public Security Forum. The state recorded 3,949 estimated violent deaths that year, compared to 3,153 cases in 2023. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Minas Gerais lidera o ranking nacional com o maior aumento de homicídios estimados em 2024, segundo o Atlas da Violência 2026, divulgado nesta terça-feira (26/5). O levantamento feito pelo Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) e pelo Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública aponta que o estado contabilizou 3.949 mortes violentas naquele ano, uma alta de 25,2% em comparação a 2023, que teve 3.153 casos."
The state capital performed even worse: Belo Horizonte registered a 59.1% increase in estimated homicide rates between 2023 and 2024, leading the ranking among all Brazilian capitals. The increase surpassed Fortaleza (+26%), Belém (+20.3%) and São Paulo (+8.5%). ✓
Press quotes (1)
"O Atlas da Violência 2026, divulgado nesta terça-feira (26/5) pelo Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) e pelo Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública (FBSP), aponta que Belo Horizonte registrou um aumento de 59,1% na taxa de homicídios estimados"
The jump in Minas Gerais numbers is mainly explained by the increase in "hidden homicides" — cases initially classified as violent deaths of undetermined cause (MVCI) that a machine learning model identifies as likely unreported murders. The state registered 1,218 hidden deaths in 2024, up 240.2% from 358 in 2023. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Segundo o Atlas, o estado registrou 1.218 mortes ocultas em 2024, um aumento de 240,2% em comparação a 2023 que registrou 358 mortes."
Despite the increase in estimated numbers, Minas maintains a relatively low homicide rate in the national context: 18.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, below states like Amapá (47.1), Ceará (43.7) and Bahia (42.6). Officially registered homicides in the state fell 2.3% in 2024, totaling 2,731 cases. ?
Press quotes (2)
"os pesquisadores à frente do Atlas desenvolveram, eles próprios, um modelo que permite estimar, por meio de técnicas de machine learning (aprendizado de máquina), quantas dessas mortes violentas por causas indeterminadas podem ter sido "homicídios ocultos". "A gente olha as pessoas que morreram por morte violenta e as características das vítimas e também do incidente em si", afirma Cerqueira."
"O número de mortes violentas indeterminadas é o recorde histórico. Foi de 13.896, em 2023, para 17.207, em 2024, o que foi algo até surpreendente", afirma Daniel Cerqueira, pesquisador do Ipea e coordenador do Atlas da Violência."
Atlas of Violence 2026 was released on May 26, 2026 by Ipea and Brazilian Public Security Forum
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (2)
State Justice and Public Security Department of Minas Gerais justified the numbers claiming that undetermined cause cases occur when there are insufficient elements for immediate definition of dynamics
National estimated homicide rate fell 26.9% between 2014 and 2024
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Why was there such a significant increase in violent deaths of undetermined cause in Minas Gerais?
Why it's still unknown: The State Justice and Public Security Department of MG attributes cases to situations where there are insufficient elements for immediate definition of incident dynamics, but doesn't explain why these cases tripled in 2024.
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What is the strongest counter-argument against the Atlas of Violence methodology?
Why it's still unknown: No source presented methodological criticism of the machine learning model used to identify hidden homicides, nor questioning about the statistical validity of estimates.
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What specific actions does Belo Horizonte City Hall plan to adopt to reverse the 59.1% increase in estimated homicide rates?
Why it's still unknown: O Tempo reported questioning BH City Hall about actions aimed at reducing criminality, but response was still awaited at press time.
Did not cover: Estado de Minas