A BTG/Nexus poll for the 2026 elections showed Lula with 41% of voting intentions in the first round, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 36%. In a runoff, the two appear in a statistical tie, with Lula recording 46% and Flávio 45%.
The BTG/Nexus poll was conducted between April 24-26 with 2,028 voters to measure voting intentions for the 2026 presidential elections. The survey reveals a scenario of strong consolidated polarization, with about 37% of voters preferring Lula and another 37% preferring a candidate supported by Jair Bolsonaro.
The poll was conducted between April 24-26, 2026 with 2,028 voters
Lula recorded 41% of voting intentions in the first round
In the runoff, Lula recorded 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 45%
The margin of error is two percentage points
Romeu Zema recorded 4% of voting intentions
Ronaldo Caiado recorded 3% of voting intentions
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (7)
Flávio Bolsonaro recorded 36% in the first round
Flávio Bolsonaro ranged between 36% and 38% in the first round
In spontaneous voting, Lula recorded 33% and Flávio Bolsonaro 26%
29% of voters are undecided in spontaneous voting
Renan Santos (Missão) recorded 3% of voting intentions
No gaps declared — all sources converge on the material facts.