The Real Time Big Data Institute released a poll for the 2026 presidential election. Lula leads in all tested scenarios, with Flávio Bolsonaro in second place. The poll was conducted between May 2 and 4 with 2,000 respondents.
Real Time Big Data Institute is a polling company that conducts public opinion surveys on presidential elections in Brazil. The poll was conducted between May 2-4 with a sample of 2,000 respondents, presenting three different scenarios for the 2026 elections.
Lula leads first-round voting intentions with 40% in the first scenario and 38% in the second scenario
Flávio Bolsonaro appears in second place with 34% in the first scenario and 33% in the second
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (2)
The poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%
In a runoff simulation, Flávio Bolsonaro appears numerically ahead with 44% against Lula's 43%, within the margin of error
No gaps declared — all sources converge on the material facts.