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Quaest poll shows Lula ahead in Northeast and Flávio Bolsonaro in South for 2026

2 sources · 07 May 2026 · Share coverage ·

The Quaest institute released a poll about the 2026 presidential elections between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The survey shows a clear regional division: Lula leads in the Northeast and Pará, while Flávio has an advantage in the South and most of the Southeast.

The Quaest poll shows a clear geographic division in voting intentions for 2026, with Lula maintaining a consolidated advantage in the Northeast while Flávio Bolsonaro leads in most southern and southeastern states. The survey was conducted between April 21-28, 2026, with 11,646 voters across ten states that account for approximately 75% of Brazil's electorate.

1. What we know (2)

The poll was conducted between April 21 and 28, 2026 with 11,646 voters

1 source Jornal do Brasil

Lula has an advantage in the Northeast and Flávio in the South

2 sources Jornal do Brasil Veja
2. Where coverage thins out (5)

Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.

Covered by only some sources (2)

The margin of error is 2 points for São Paulo and 3 points for the others

Reported by: Jornal do Brasil
Did not cover: Veja

Lula has adopted pragmatic alliances in the South

Reported by: Veja
Did not cover: Jornal do Brasil

Conflicting versions (3)

Percentages in Rio Grande do Sul

1 source — "Flávio has 65% and Lula 35%": Jornal do Brasil
1 source — "Flávio has 57% and Lula 31%": Veja

Percentages in Paraná

1 source — "Flávio has 62% and Lula 38%": Jornal do Brasil
1 source — "Flávio has 50% and Lula 30%": Veja

Percentages in Bahia

1 source — "Lula has 71%": Jornal do Brasil
1 source — "Lula has 55% against Flávio's 22%": Veja
3. What we don't know yet

No gaps declared — all sources converge on the material facts.

All sources

2