The Quaest institute released a poll about the 2026 presidential elections between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The survey shows a clear regional division: Lula leads in the Northeast and Pará, while Flávio has an advantage in the South and most of the Southeast.
The Quaest poll shows a clear geographic division in voting intentions for 2026, with Lula maintaining a consolidated advantage in the Northeast while Flávio Bolsonaro leads in most southern and southeastern states. The survey was conducted between April 21-28, 2026, with 11,646 voters across ten states that account for approximately 75% of Brazil's electorate.
The poll was conducted between April 21 and 28, 2026 with 11,646 voters
Lula has an advantage in the Northeast and Flávio in the South
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (2)
The margin of error is 2 points for São Paulo and 3 points for the others
Conflicting versions (3)
Percentages in Rio Grande do Sul
Percentages in Paraná
Percentages in Bahia
No gaps declared — all sources converge on the material facts.