✓ verbatim from the press
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the 2026 presidential race with 42.1% of voting intentions in a stimulated first-round scenario, according to a Vox Brasil Institute poll released on June 5. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears in second place with 33.6%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) lidera a corrida presidencial em cenário estimulado de primeiro turno, segundo pesquisa do Instituto Vox Brasil divulgada nesta sexta-feira, 5. O petista aparece com 42,1% das intenções de voto, contra 33,6% do senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), uma vantagem de 8,5 pontos percentuais."
The survey indicates growth in the PT candidate's advantage compared to previous rounds from the same institute. Since mid-May, Lula advanced 7.8 percentage points, going from 34.3% to 42.1%, while Flávio Bolsonaro declined 2.9 points, from 36.5% to 33.6%. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"O levantamento mostra crescimento da vantagem de Lula em relação às rodadas anteriores. Desde meados de maio, o presidente avançou 7,8 pontos percentuais, saindo de 34,3% para 42,1%, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro recuou 2,9 pontos, de 36,5% para 33,6%."
In third position appears former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 6.9% of voting intentions, followed by former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) with 5.1%. Other candidates register smaller percentages: Renan Santos (Missão) with 3.1%, Aécio Neves (PSDB) with 2.1%, Joaquim Barbosa (DC) with 1.1%, Augusto Cury (Avante) with 0.5%, and Cabo Daciolo with 0.3%. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Na terceira posição aparece o ex-governador de Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), com 6,9% das intenções de voto. Em seguida está o ex-governador de Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), com 5,1%. Renan Santos (Missão) registra 3,1%, seguido por Aécio Neves (PSDB), com 2,1%, Joaquim Barbosa (DC) com 1,1%, Augusto Cury (Avante) com 0,5%, e Cabo Daciolo com 0,3%."
The Vox Brasil Institute interviewed 2,100 Brazilians aged 16 or older between June 1-3, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of 2.15 percentage points either way and a 95% confidence level. The results were registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number 08016/2026. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"O Instituto Vox Brasil ouviu 2.100 brasileiros com 16 anos ou mais entre os dias 1 e 3 de junho. A pesquisa tem margem de erro de 2,15 pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos e nível de confiança de 95%. Os resultados foram registrados no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) com o número 08016/2026."
Lula leads with 42.1% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 33.6%
The poll was conducted with 2,100 respondents between June 1-3, with a margin of error of 2.15 percentage points
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (4)
Detailed demographic breakdowns by gender, age, income and education
Lula government evaluation with 49.1% approval and 49.3% disapproval
Evolution of Lula's advantage since May, with a gain of 7.8 percentage points
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What is Vox Brasil's accuracy track record in previous elections?
Why it's still unknown: None of the consulted sources provide data on the institute's track record in past elections, essential information to assess the methodological reliability of the results.
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How does Vox Brasil's methodology compare to established institutes?
Why it's still unknown: Reports mention TSE registration and basic sample data, but don't detail whether collection was in-person, by phone or online, nor compare with standards from other institutes.
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What is the current legal status of registered candidates?
Why it's still unknown: Sources don't address potential challenges, appeals or pending electoral legal actions that might affect the candidacies mentioned in the poll.
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How do the results compare with other polling institutes in the same period?
Why it's still unknown: Reports don't present comparison with surveys from other institutes to contextualize whether the numbers are within trends observed by multiple sources.
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What is the historical pattern of voting intention changes in the final months before election?
Why it's still unknown: While mentioning Lula's advantage growth since May, sources don't contextualize whether 7.8-point swings are usual at this stage of the electoral cycle.