✓ verbatim from the press ? no verbatim passage
The president of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Minister Kassio Nunes Marques, suspended on Monday (8) the publication of an AtlasIntel poll showing a six-percentage-point drop in voting intentions for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) for the presidency after leaked audio involving banker Daniel Vorcaro. The preliminary (provisional) decision is from the Court's president, Minister Kassio Nunes Marques, and must be submitted for endorsement by the TSE's collegiate session. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"A decisão liminar (provisória) é do presidente do Tribunal, ministro Kassio Nunes Marques, e deve ser levada a referendo na sessão colegiada do TSE."
The survey published on May 19 showed Lula with 48.9% and Flávio with 41.8% in a potential runoff — a five-point drop for the senator compared to the previous poll, when both were technically tied. The Liberal Party (PL) approached the TSE alleging that the questionnaire was structured to induce negative responses, with eight of the 49 questions directly addressing Banco Master in sequential order. ?
Press quotes (1)
"O levantamento divulgado em 19 de maio mostrava Lula com 48,9% e Flávio com 41,8% em eventual segundo turno"
Nunes Marques pointed to signs of compromised methodological neutrality in the poll, highlighting that 27 other previous AtlasIntel surveys did not present questionnaires with similar content nor used audio as stimulus for respondents. The minister determined that AtlasIntel must present complementary technical documentation indicating the methodology's regularity, especially regarding the use of audio. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"O ministro determinou que a AtlasIntel apresente documentação técnica complementar que indique a regularidade da metodologia, especialmente em relação ao uso do áudio."
AtlasIntel countered the accusations in a statement, affirming that voting intentions were collected before presenting the audio to respondents and that there was no possibility of altering already recorded responses. The institute highlighted that subsequent polls by other institutes identified a similar pattern of impact on Flávio Bolsonaro's voting intentions. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Pesquisas de opinião realizadas posteriormente por diferentes institutos identificaram o mesmo padrão de impacto do episódio sobre as intenções de voto do candidato do Partido Liberal"
The AtlasIntel poll was conducted between May 13-18 with 5,032 respondents and a 1-percentage-point margin of error
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (2)
The suspension represents censorship by the PL and Bolsonarism
Flávio Bolsonaro avoided making a big deal of the decision to not reignite the audio topic
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What will be the result of the TSE plenary referendum on the suspension?
Why it's still unknown: The decision is to be taken to the TSE plenary on Tuesday (9), but the result has not yet been disclosed
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What specific technical documentation must AtlasIntel present to the TSE?
Why it's still unknown: The TSE demanded 'complementary technical documentation' but did not specify which documents or criteria will be evaluated
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Is there precedent for suspending registered electoral polls at the TSE for methodological issues?
Why it's still unknown: Outlets report the decision is 'unusual' but provide no data on historical precedents