✓ verbatim from the press ? no verbatim passage
Brazil's 2026 winter will have milder temperatures than normal — but the predicted El Niño for the coming months should reach its peak strength only in summer, between November 2026 and January 2027. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (the U.S. agency for oceans and atmosphere), there is a 63% probability of a "very strong" El Niño during this period, which would rank among the largest events in the historical record since 1950. The latest Niño-3.4 index measurement registered +0.7°C above average, and the forecast uses the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) — composed of six climate models, including NCEP CFSv2, CCSM4, the Canadian models CanCM3 and CanCM4, GEM/NEMO, and GEOS-5. ✓
Press quotes (3)
"There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January [[Fig. 8]](./figure08.gif) that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950."
"The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.7°C... The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [[Fig. 6]](./figure06.gif), forecasts El Niño to intensify into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27."
"The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) - The Climate Forecast Model version 2 (CFSv2-2011) - The Canadian Coupled Climate Model versions 3 and 4 (CanCM3, CanCM4) - The Global Environmental Multiscale/Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (GEM/NEMO) - The Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5)"
For the winter beginning at 5:25 AM on Sunday (21st), the meteorology consultancy Nottus forecasts lower temperatures at the start of the season, but "El Niño's effects should curb the very low temperatures this year, especially from August onward," according to Alexandre Nascimento, partner-director and meteorologist at the company. The combination of drier periods and northerly winds favors gradual temperature increases in the second half of winter, especially in the central region of the country, where "veranicos" may occur — periods of dry weather and atypically high temperatures in the middle of the cold season. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"os efeitos do El Niño devem frear as baixíssimas temperaturas neste ano, principalmente de agosto em diante"
"Ele aponta que algumas áreas da região central do país devem ter a presença dos veranicos, como são chamados os períodos de tempo seco e temperaturas atipicamente elevadas, que ocorrem no meio do outono ou inverno."
The rainfall pattern should be uneven: concentration above normal in the South Region, while the North and Northeast will have "shorter and less intense" precipitation, according to Nottus, favoring droughts. From September onward, the forecast points to rainfall above the climatological average in the South, while the Northeast will have below-average precipitation in the eastern and northern zones. Nascimento assesses that for 2026, "El Niño will even be beneficial for the" Brazilian electrical system, due to the arrival of the rainy season in the South and parts of the Southeast — but warns of "quite significant pressure" in 2027, with elevated consumption in the first quarter due to heat waves and less rain in the North and Northeast. ✓
Press quotes (3)
"as precipitações ficam mais curtas e menos intensas no Norte e Nordeste, favorecendo a chance de secas"
"Eu acho que, em 2026, o El Niño vai ser até benéfico para o sistema"
"No ano que vem, existe uma pressão bem grande, por conta do El Niño, de a gente ter um consumo elevado do primeiro trimestre, por conta de ondas de calor, e não chover tanto no Norte e no Nordeste"
The Federal Government installed a permanent Situation Room under the coordination of the Civil House, bringing together 13 ministries and various public agencies, to continuously monitor climate scenarios and plan anticipatory responses. The structure was created to reduce environmental and social impacts of what is being called the "Super El Niño," predicted to persist until at least the first half of 2027. ?
Press quotes (1)
"Para coordenar as ações, o Governo Federal instalou uma sala de situação permanente sob coordenação da Casa Civil, reunindo 13 ministérios e diversos órgãos públicos. O grupo acompanha continuamente os cenários climáticos e planeja respostas antecipadas para reduzir impactos ambientais e sociais."
Brazil's 2026 winter will have milder temperatures than normal due to El Niño, with more pronounced warming effects from August onward
The South Region will have above-normal rainfall concentration, while the North and Northeast will have shorter and less intense precipitation, favoring droughts
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (4)
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a bulletin on June 11, 2026, forecasting a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027, which would rank among the largest events since 1950
The Niño-3.4 index registered +0.7°C above average in the latest weekly measurement, and the forecast uses the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) composed of six distinct climate models
The Federal Government installed a permanent Situation Room coordinated by the Civil House, bringing together 13 ministries and various public agencies to continuously monitor climate scenarios
Alexandre Nascimento of Nottus forecasts that El Niño will be beneficial for Brazil's electrical system in 2026, but will cause significant pressure in 2027 with elevated consumption in the first quarter and less rain in the North and Northeast
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What are the 13 ministries that comprise the Interministerial Situation Room created by the Civil House?
Why it's still unknown: Sources mention that 13 ministries and various public agencies participate, but none of them lists which ministries or agencies were convened.
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What is the uncertainty margin of the 63% forecast for the "very strong" El Niño between November-January, and what alternative scenarios do the climate models consider?
Why it's still unknown: The NOAA bulletin provides the central probability (63%), but does not detail confidence intervals or the alternative scenarios that the remaining 37% contemplate.
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What criteria did Nottus use to rule out extreme events like the April-May 2024 storms in Rio Grande do Sul?
Why it's still unknown: The consultancy states there is no forecast for comparable extreme events, but does not explain what methodology or threshold was used for this assessment.
Did not cover: JC Cpc Pt