✓ verbatim from the press
More than half of Brazilian exports destined for the United States could face additional tariffs if measures proposed by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) are implemented. According to a study released by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) on June 15, 2026, 54.1% of Brazilian products sent to the North American market would be subject to some type of surcharge — combining the new proposals with sectoral measures already in force under Section 232. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"54,1%"
"Quando somadas às medidas setoriais já aplicadas com base na Seção 232, a parcela de produtos brasileiros atingidos por alguma tributação adicional poderá alcançar 54,1%."
The USTR announced on June 2, 2026, the results of investigations conducted under Section 301 of U.S. trade legislation. According to an official statement from the office, 60 economies — including Brazil — were determined to have "acts, policies, and practices related to the failure to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labor" considered unreasonable. The deadline for written comments was set for July 6, 2026, with public hearings scheduled for July 6 and 7. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Today, the United States Trade Representative determined under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 that the acts, policies, and practices of 60 economies related to the failure to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labor is unreasonable... Written comments are due by July 6, 2026."
CNI calculates that 31.6% of Brazilian exports to the U.S. would face a 37.5% tariff, compared to the current 10% — an increase of 27.5 percentage points. Another 3.6% of shipments would see the rate rise from 10% to 12.5%. Among the products that could be subjected to the 37.5% tariff are unalloyed pig iron (US$ 1.5 billion exported in 2024), solid cane sugar, inedible tallow, non-denatured ethyl alcohol, and pine wood frames. The list of items with a possible 12.5% tariff includes iron ore and concentrates, agglomerated pellets, quartzite slabs, orange essential oils, and silicon. ✓
Press quotes (3)
"31,6% das exportações brasileiras destinadas aos Estados Unidos poderão ser submetidas a uma tarifa de 37,5%"
"outros 3,6% dos embarques brasileiros para o mercado norte-americano passariam de uma tarifa de 10% para 12,5%"
"Entre os produtos mais afetados está o ferro gusa não ligado, que passaria a recolher uma tarifa adicional de 37,5%, ante os 10% atualmente aplicados com base na Seção 122. Em 2024, as exportações brasileiras desse item para os Estados Unidos somaram US$ 1,5 bilhão."
CNI president Ricardo Alban stated that the eventual imposition of new tariffs would not benefit either side. "They would increase costs for companies, reduce competitiveness, and create uncertainties for investments. The most efficient path is dialogue, based on technical criteria and the search for solutions that preserve a strategic economic partnership for both countries," Alban told the press. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"A eventual imposição de novas tarifas não beneficia nenhum dos lados. Elas aumentariam custos para empresas, reduziriam a competitividade e criariam incertezas para investimentos. O caminho mais eficiente é o diálogo, baseado em critérios técnicos e na busca de soluções que preservem uma parceria econômica estratégica para ambos os países"
The investigation directed at Brazil, initiated in July 2025, concluded that practices related to digital commerce, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption efforts, intellectual property, access to the ethanol market, and anti-deforestation actions would be considered restrictive or burdensome to U.S. trade, according to the USTR. When the two measures — forced labor and trade practices — apply to the same product, the total surcharge can reach 37.5%. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"No caso da investigação direcionada ao Brasil, iniciada em julho de 2025, o órgão concluiu que práticas relacionadas ao comércio digital, tarifas preferenciais, combate à corrupção, propriedade intelectual, acesso ao mercado de etanol e ações de combate ao desmatamento seriam consideradas restritivas ou onerosas ao comércio norte-americano."
"Quando as duas medidas recaem sobre um mesmo produto, a sobretaxa total pode atingir 37,5%."
USTR proposed tariffs that would affect 54.1% of Brazilian exports to the U.S. when combined with sectoral measures already in force (Section 232), according to CNI calculation.
31.6% of Brazilian exports to the U.S. would be subject to a 37.5% tariff, compared to the current 10%, according to CNI.
The proposed tariffs have not yet taken effect and depend on public consultations and hearings in the U.S., scheduled for July 6 and 7.
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (3)
Unalloyed pig iron represented US$ 1.5 billion in Brazilian exports to the U.S. in 2024.
USTR's investigation on Brazil, initiated in July 2025, covered practices in digital commerce, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption, intellectual property, ethanol, and deforestation.
CNI's study used USTR's exception lists as a basis, considering exports already covered by Section 232 measures as exempt.
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What is the detailed sectoral breakdown of the US$ 1.5 billion in pig iron and which other products comprise the 31.6% vulnerable to the 37.5% tariff?
Why it's still unknown: CNI quantified only pig iron (US$ 1.5 billion in 2024) but did not disclose dollar values or relative share of other listed products (sugar, tallow, ethanol, wood frames) within the 31.6% aggregate. Exame and Revista Oeste reproduced the product list but without value breakdown by item.
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Which Brazilian sectors have the greatest relative exposure to the U.S. market versus alternative destinations, and what is the estimated impact on jobs?
Why it's still unknown: CNI's study focused on export percentages and monetary values (US$ 1.5 billion in pig iron) but did not quantify jobs at risk or analyze sectoral dependence on the U.S. market compared to alternative destinations. None of the sources consulted brought this dimension.
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Will Brazil submit a formal written statement within the July 6, 2026 deadline, and what technical arguments will be mobilized?
Why it's still unknown: USTR set July 6 as the deadline for comments, and CNI stated that "this stage offers Brazil the opportunity to present technical data and arguments," but as of publication on June 15, no source reported whether the Brazilian government confirmed it will participate in the public consultation or what argumentative lines will be adopted.
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What is USTR's technical rationale for including Brazil among countries that "do not effectively enforce" prohibitions on imports produced with forced labor?
Why it's still unknown: USTR's statement affirmed the determination but sources consulted did not detail the technical criteria, evidence, or specific cases that led to Brazil's inclusion in the group of 60 economies investigated under Section 301 on forced labor.